Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Why Andray Blatche is the Worst Player in the NBA





(If you haven't already seen it, please watch the video above before you read. Note: Blatche has 20 points, 13 assists, 9 rebounds. That's a good line, right? Reply: Watch the video.)

Let’s imagine the NBA was starting over, and each GM was set to draft a team, out of all the players in the league, that they thought could win a championship.  First pick might be Lebron, second Kevin Durant, etc, stars to build around.  In the 2nd round each team might look for a solid complimentary player, like Andre Igoudala, or a young guy who might be a real star if they could get it all together, like Andrew Bynum.  As the rounds went on, teams would look for solid role players who could be part of a championship rotation: spot-up shooters, defensive specialists, and so on.  Gerald Wallace might go in the 3rd or 5th round, Eric Maynor maybe in the 7th.  Even someone like Ronny Turiaf, essentially useless, would probably be picked up in the late rounds for a specific skill or intangible they bring to the team.

The amazing thing about Andray Blatche is that if I were a GM trying to build a championship team, he is the very last person I would pick for it. Coming out of high school people probably hoped he would develop into a star, but it’s way too late for that.  He could never be a good role player because he’s a selfish high volume shooter who doesn’t play defense.  He could never be good offense off the bench unless he had a major attitude adjustment, which is unlikely after 6 years in the NBA.  I don’t think I need to comment on his ability to be a veteran leader after his performance this season as “captain,” a role which lasted one game after he called out his team and demanded a better role in the offense on twitter (it was the 1st game!).  He has no place on a good team, so what would he be? The guy that makes a championship team a non-championship team.

The other amazing thing about Andray Blatche is that lots of GM’s would still take him.  What makes him uniquely bad isn’t that he can't ever help a team succeed, but that he is somehow able to consistently convince management (or at least Wizards management) that he can.  If coaches would just realize he isn’t part of successful team and bench him, he couldn’t do nearly as much damage as when coaches always start him in the hopes that he realizes his potential, which the Wizards have been doing for about four years.  I think Blatche is so tantalizing because he is a combination of 3 types of overrated player.            

1. Athletic guy: A physical freak who still suffers from huge holes in their game (e.g. defense, shooting), but is great on highlight reels.  Current examples: Tyrus Thomas, Nicholas Batum.

Overrated because: Everyone seem to assume they will inevitably put in some work on their game and become monsters (Dwight Howard), instead of always relying on natural talent (Andray Blatche).  This is why random athletic people who weren’t even that successful in college are lottery picks (Marvin Williams).  

2. Pure Scorer: Piles up points, usually by taking a high volume of shots, but is not strong on defense or a good team player. Current Examples: Luis Scola, Nick Young (Blatche’s partner in crime).

Overrated because: Points are the first stat we see, and scoring isn’t easy. However, that doesn’t mean it’s the only important thing, and championship teams can really only take two offense-only players: a superstar (maybe) and someone to light it up off the bench if the offense is struggling.

3. Bad-team star: Like the scorer, piles up points, but the bad-team star frequently piles up other stats as well, usually because, as the best player/only scoring option on a bad team, they get tons of minutes and opportunity. Even the worst NBA team has a certain number of points, rebounds, and assists per game, and someone has to get them.  Examples (this year): Andrea Bargnani, Jarrett Jack.
  
 Overrated because: Don’t get me wrong, these are usually pretty good players.  However, stats just aren’t comparable from good teams to bad teams. Bargnani just couldn’t possibly take over 17 shot attempts per game if he played on a team with other legitimate scoring options.  If he played less minutes as a solid role player for a good team, he would probably be averaging closer to 15 points and 4 rebounds a game, instead of 23 and 7.


Wizards management seems to think Andray Blatche can fulfill the potential of an athletic player despite his inability to work hard or focus in games.  They seem to think he is valuable for his ability to score, despite his constant disregard for defensive effort. They seem to think he can be a good-team star, or at least secondary star to John Wall, rather than a bad-team star.  Fortunately, the mentality seems to be changing this year as the Wizards try to create a better atmosphere to build around Wall.  Especially since the firing of Flip Saunders, Blatche's minutes have been on the decline.  Nevertheless, I can’t help but worry that the Wizards still believe there is hope for Blatche, and are benching him not because they think he is useless but to motivate him, which just restarts his cycle of showing focus for 10 games before disappointing for 30.  Until I can be sure the Wizards do not value Blatche, I have to say that for the combination of his ability to gain influence and his habit of using it to destroy a team, Andray Blatche is the worst player in the NBA.

(Update: Blatche is out 3-5 weeks with a calf injury. I hope that he gets better quickly, but when he gets better, I hope he stays benched. )

3 comments:

  1. 1st of all, Williams was a lottery pick because he was on the championship UNC team and played well. Also, Blatche sucks, but he was taken as the 49th pick! Is it supposed to be shocking?The Wizards were stupid for extending him, but that team has bad management!

    http://www.82games.com/1112/11WAS6.HTM

    You know, anytime I see an article that says Nick Young sucks at D, I automatically know that it is a crappy article written by a guy who does no research. Young is actually a solid defender at the worst if you actually bothered to watch him play or look at the stats.

    I’m not calling him a star or a #1 option, which he has to play on the Wizards, but I believe he can be an average starter or excellent 6th man on a good team. If he got more rebounds and assists, then he would be comparable to Joe Johnson statwise, who IS a star. Not all players can be like that…

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    1. I have watched nearly every Wizards game while Nick has been on the team and he is not a good defensive player. He has the tools to be a good stopper, but never seems interested in being one. Sure he has had his moments of nice defensive play, but when you actually watch the games you can tell he just does not care about defense 95% of the time.

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    2. I agree Nick Young could be a great 6th man on a good team, because he could provide instant offense off of the bench and I think he would adapt to a culture of more intense defense. He's a great scorer when he's on.

      However, I have to agree with Matt that from what I've seen in the past few years of watching the Wizards (sadly, I'm a fan) he's making no effort to break out of the Wizards' defensive culture, which is "oh my man got by me. too bad." He's on the floor for offense and he cares about making shots not making stops.

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