Where we Stand Now

I’ve been about the biggest possible Nationals fan since their first game in 2005. And not since that first game, have I literally felt a tingling feeling excitement pulse throughout my body. That being said, this tingling feeling is more one of cautious optimism than blind faith in the team. I now bring you my breakdown of the Nationals’ off-season, and where we stand going forward.

The biggest acquisition for the Nationals this winter was clearly former A’s aceGio Gonzalez. The Nats gave up three pitching prospects and a catching prospect in exchange for the lefty. The trade took some heat from so called “experts” because they felt like the Nats gave up too much young talent.  Today’s MLB prospects though, seem to be overvalued. There are too many guys who can never find success at the highest level to not try to get a proven all-star in exchange, especially when said all-star is also only 26, and is only now entering his prime. And as far as catcher Derek Norris is concerned, he’s going to have a legitimate chance to start in Oakland in place of the aging Kurt Suzuki, instead of waiting and hoping that Wilson Ramos fails behind the plate. Gonzalez’ high strikeout percentage, in addition to (hopefully) a full season of Stephen Strasburg, will drastically lower the number of errors from 104 last year. That coupled with a healthy Ryan Zimmerman should lead to the Nationals getting that number down to the low 90s or high 80s in 2012.

The other big acquisition the Nationals made was signing Brad Lidge this week. Although Lidge is not close to his closer form from Houston, or the beginning of his time in Philadelphia, he will be able to provide a solid 7^th inning guy that the Nats desperately need. Not only will he be able to plug the 7^th inning hole, he is also very capable of stepping in and closing on nights where Storen is unavailable.

Unfortunately for the Nats, the most national attention they got this off-season was for not signing Prince Fielder. After the fact though, I am glad the Lerners decided not to invest more than 214 million dollars on the Prince. Fielder would have obviously bolstered the lineup significantly, but he also would have crippled the Nats defensively.  For most teams, signing Prince Fielder would have only meant a decline in defense at first base (ironically the Tigers were not one of these teams,) but for the Nationals, they would have to live with bad defense at first base, and a poor defensive outfield. When looking at the Nationals future, you have to assume that Mike Morse and Jayson Werth are going to be in D.C. for the long haul. If the Nats signed Prince, they would have to move Mike Morse permanently to left field. They are developing Bryce Harper as a corner outfielder, so when they do Bring up Harper, he is going to have to play right field. This means they would be forced to play Jayson Werth in center. Werth is a solid outfielder with a strong arm, but he is by no means a major league center fielder, this was evident in the few games he did start last year in center. Defense in the outfield is often overlooked, but what makes the centerfielder so important compared to an infielder, is that when Werth doesn’t get to a ball, that often turns into extra bases and easy RBIs, which turns into ballgames lost. Still, after taking all of this into consideration, if Prince were to keep up his current numbers for the next six or seven years, it would be a worthwhile signing. With his size though, I’m glad the Lerners didn’t take the chance that his numbers slip, and the team pays dearly.

The biggest question mark for the Nationals this year is Ian Desmond. Desmond is 26, but is entering only his third full season in the majors. In 2011, Desmond drastically improved his defense. Lowering is error total from 34-23, it seems like he and Danny Espinosa are starting to get some good chemistry in the middle infield. Demond’s batting average dropped ten points to .253 in 2011, which is not acceptable for a starting shortstop, but Desmond hit over .273 the second half of the year, including hitting over .300 in the month of September. The question plaguing everyone in the Nats’ front office right now, is whether this was a legitimate sign of progress, or was he just taking advantage of late season call ups? For Desmond, the first month of the year is going to be crucial for how the rest of his season plays out.

As a unit, the outfield is what’s most concerning for the team at this point. Right now the Nationals’ roster lists only four outfielders, and two of them are Bryce Harper and Eury Perez, who are longshots to make the opening day roster.  The most likely starting outfield on April 5^th will be Werth in right, Morse in left if Adam LaRoche can hold his own at first during spring training, and Roger Bernadina in center. One of the Nationals goals going into the off-season was to bring in a veteran centerfielder. To this point, they have failed to do so, which means that in all likelihood, Roger Bernadina will get one last shot at proving he can play with the big boys. Every time I want to get rid of Bernadina for good, I show up to a game early and watch him knock the skin off the ball in batting practice, so I can see why he’s gotten so many chances. It would be really nice to see Roger get over the hump, but I don’t think it’s going to happen for the 27 year old. Look for the Nats to be in the market for a centerfielder come the All-Star break.

The Nationals’ top three starters have the potential to be the best in baseball. Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann are both a year healthier, and Gio Gonzalez will hopefully improve upon his numbers by moving to the NL. The fourth spot will go to John Lannan, and the fifth spot is very much up for grabs. It would be nice to see someone like Ross Detwiler actually start to figure things out and make a play for the fifth spot in the rotation, but it will probably end up being Tom Gorzelanny or Chien-Mieng Wang who grab the last spot. If I were GM, I trade the farm and bring back Tomo Okha. The bullpen will continue to be strong. Storen, Clippard, and Lidge will headline the group, but Davey Johnson will have an array of young arms to play with over the course of the year.

After considering everything The Nationals have put together the for the 2012 campaign, it is very possible the Nats will be right in the thick of the wild card race come September. The Nationals were virtually .500 last year(80-81 with a rainout.) The addition of Gio Gonzales, having a full season of Stephen Strasburg, the natural progressions for guys like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa, and Jayson Werth hopefully hitting closer to his career average, gives them eight more wins this year. That puts them at 88 or 89 wins, which would have been a game or two out of the wild card last year. So, here’s to a contending ball club in the Nation’s Capital.