With the Major League Baseball season just a mere three weeks away Henno and Matt decided to make some bold and brash predictions that will undoubtedly be wrong. Get your peanuts and Cracker Jacks ready, because by the time you are done reading this preview your house, office or wherever you choose to read Love Boat Sports, will be filled with the sweet aroma of a Fenway Frank. Baseball!
MVP:
Matt: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton
Matt Kemp- Matt Kemp is my favorite to win the NL MVP this year. I would be surprised if anyone else comes close to taking this award away from Kemp. He finished second in MVP voting last season and if the Dodgers had been a little bit better it seems pretty obvious that Kemp would have won. He was one dinger away from becoming the fifth player ever to have 40 steals and 40 homeruns in a season. If he does achieve this milestone this season he will be a lock for MVP. His .324 batting average last season was a bit of an outlier compared to his .294 career average, but it seems that the 27-year-old in entering his prime now and should be able to post another season around the .320 mark. Word of advice to lefty pitchers; do not throw Kemp a fastball anywhere near the strike zone...he hit .407 when lefty's threw him fastballs last season.
Ryan Braun- The Hebrew Hammer is coming off his best but most controversial season. Braun won the 2011 NL MVP award, then was on the verge of having it stripped away after reports came out that he tested positive for an elevated testosterone level that is linked directly with certain performance enhancing drugs, only to win his appeal against those claims and retain his MVP award. Winning back-to-back MVP awards is not a likely feat, and Braun will probably come up short in his quest, but his extrinsic motivation will be at an all-time high. If he is able to match his career high 33 steals, which he notched last year and get another 30-30 season Braun could nab back-to-back MVP's.
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| My name is Giancarlo DAMNIT! Curtesy of Getty Images |
Giancarlo Stanton (Dark Horse)- I had been doing a ton of mock drafts on ESPN and was in the middle of a mock draft when I noticed that Mike Stanton was no longer available. Instead I was left with Giancarlo Stanton. I thought that ESPN had a very weird and very random mistake, or they were trying to play the worst prank ever on all of us mock drafters. Turns out the artist formally known as Mike was done honoring the ex-Yankee relief pitcher Mike Stanton. The funny thing is that Giancarlo actually stands for "Dark Horse MVP Candidate" in Italian--well according to Lt. Aldo Raine it does. Seriously though Stanton hit .271 after the all-star break last season and if he continues to raise his batting average and lower his strikeout rate he could be a legitimate MVP candidate.
Henno: Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Starlin Castro
Matt Kemp- Everyone knows about Matt Kemp's credentials. Even if he didn't win the MVP award last year, he put up some astonishing numbers. There is no reason to believe he won't do it again. One way he can guarantee securing the award is by hitting for The Triple Crown. It's been 45 long years since Yaz (not going to try to spell it out) won the last Triple Crown. Think about how many people have never had the chance to witness this type of historic season. When Kemp had an outside chance at the coveted glory last year I was caught up in the madness, checking his box score two or three times a night. If Kemp can somehow hold The Crown going into the final day of the regular season, he will herald our attention in the way only a transcendent story can.
Jose Reyes- It's hard for me to give my vote to Jose Reyes' after he bowed out against Ryan Braun last year to ensure winning the batting title. A true MVP plays the full game, even when risking a season hitting .400, (shoutout to Ted Williams). Even if he may not have "the heart" of an MVP, he certainly has the skill. But for his stats to be more impressive than other MVP candidates, Reyes will have to avoid a stint on the DL. He's missed at least twenty five games for three consecutive years now. Dealing with injuries however, has not made him a less efficient player. During those three seasons, he still hit at a .327 clip. As long as he continues to hit at a high level, an MVP season is within reach.
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| When you wish upon a Starlin |
Starlin Castro (Dark Horse)- By all accounts Starling Castro made the leap last year for the Cubs. He led the league in hits and was one of the lone bright spots for one of the five worst teams in the league. However Castro needs to make a few improvements to contend for an MVP award. Primarily he needs to play better defensively; he committed 29 errors at shortstop and cost his team 15 runs over the course of the season. In addition to that, Castro needs to reach base at a higher percentage. His on-base percentage was only 34 percentage points higher than his batting average. If Castro can reach base more often, his other stats will reap the benefits as well. Finally for Castro to be a true MVP candidate, the Cubbies need to win more than 71 games this year.
Cy Young:
Matt: Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson
Zack Greinke- We all remember the incredible year Greinke posted in 2009 as a member of the lowly Kansas City Royals where he went 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA. He won the Cy Young award that year, and I think he will do it again this year in the National League. Greinke missed the opening month of last season because of a rib injury, but once he came back he was lights out, especially in the second half of the season where he posted a 2.59 ERA and went 9-3. Also according to Bill James and sabermetrics Zack was one of the more unlucky pitchers last year. He had his highest K/9 rate and his highest ground ball percentage of his career last season, which should have led to even more success. So with a little bit of luck and full season of health Greinke is my favorite to win the mighty Cy this year.
Roy Halladay- Until he retires, Roy Halladay will be a favorite to win the Cy Young.
Josh Johnson (Dark Horse)- Josh Johnson probably should have been listed under my "Players I'm Rooting For" list but I decided to show double J some love. Prior to his Prior (Mark Prior=injury. Sorry that was kind of lame) Johnson was dominating the league, like absolutely dominating. In the 9 starts he made in 2011 he had an ERA of 1.64 and was 3-1. With an ERA of 1.64 he probably should have won more than 3 of those 9 games... With the addition of Jose Reyes and the rise of Giancarlo (the 'Rise of Giancarlo' is opening in theaters November 2012), Johnson should see an increase in run support and an increase in wins. He has already had Tommy John surgery and missed the last four months of 2011 with a shoulder injury, so the biggest roadblock to Johnson and his Cy Young quest might not be Roy Halladay or Zack Greinke but instead his own injury prone arm. Stay healthy my friend.
Henno: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels
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| From left to right: Best, Better, Good |
Roy Halladay- See Matt's explanation.
Cliff Lee- Cliff Lee had six shutouts last year. Let that sink in. In six games last year it didn't matter how bad the Phillies' offense was or how good the opposing pitcher was, the Phillies were not losing the game while Cliff Lee was pitching. Last year he was five wins short of his total the year he won his Cy Young award, but his ERA was actually better and the lowest of his career. At age 33, Cliff Lee has at least two more years of dominance before he fades out of the annual Cy Young race.
Cole Hamels (Dark Horse)- Yeah alright, Cole Hamels most likely isn't going to win the Cy Young Award. I just thought if I chose two Phillies, I might as well go all in with the third. Even if he might be a borderline Cy Young candidate, Hamels still had the best year of his career in 2011. His ERA was the lowest it has ever been over an entire season and his BB/9 was also at a career low. Although it wouldn't be surprising if he showed some regression as there is reason to believe he often got lucky last year. Opponents' BAbip was abnormally low at .259 and could be the cause for his career year.
Players I'm Rooting For:
Matt: Jason Heyward and Adam Wainwright
Jason Heyward- The 22-year-old had an abysmal sophomore campaign, where he hit just .227 with 14 homeruns. Everybody was hailing Heyward as the next big thing in baseball, but after last season the stellar career that everyone envision for Heyward is in question. He was burdened with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 20 games last season, and was clearly still hampering him even when he did return to the field. Being fully healthy for his third season should certainly help improve his disappointing sophomore numbers, but after watching Heyward whiff on curveball after curveball, health will not be a fix-all solution. Heyward seems like a pretty chill bro, so I am rooting for him to bounce back and get on the path to stardom once again.
Adam Wainwright- It takes a cold hearted b*stard to not root for Adam Wainwright this season. Wainwright got hurt after throwing during a practice session in February last year and ended up getting Tommy John surgery, which cost him his entire 2011 season. In 2010 he was second in Cy Young voting. Wainwright relies on his stellar command, and is one of the better ground ball pitchers in the league. The Tommy John could definitely hurt his command which would result in more line drives and less ground balls--a pitchers worse nightmare. There are plenty of guys who have bounced back well from Tommy John so let's hope that Wainwright (and Strasburg) is another guy who can be added to the list of successes.
Henno: Carlos Zambrano, Buster Posey, and Jayson Werth
Carlos Zambrano- Big Z is one of baseball's many enigmas. But unlike some of his more gregarious counterparts (Brian Wilson), Zambrano's career has been controversial or disheartening depending on your perspective. Carlos Zambrano gave the Cubs six stellar seasons before eventually self-combusting and turning into a crazy, angry cartoon character. From what I have read, Carlos Zambrano is very different from the way he is perceived to be by fans. Many people testified that the media (perhaps ESPN?) shaped his altercation with Derrek Lee to fit this public persona. This year, with a fresh start and a manager who supports him, I'm hoping Zambrano can recover and be an effective pitcher for Miami.
Buster Posey- Is anybody not rooting for Buster Posey? For up to a week after Scott Cousins' collided with Posey, the gruesome video played on repeat in my mind. Posey's rehabilitation appears to be over; he has been playing sparingly for the Giants this spring. Signs point towards Posey fully recovering and returning to the high level of play he was at before his injury. His stats in 2010 were ridiculous for a rookie, especially at such a grueling defensive position. He hit .305 in 2010 and was also able to put up an OPS of .862. I'm sure I'm not alone in rooting for Posey and the return of one of baseball's shining young stars.
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| Hair |
Jayson Werth- Jayson Werth's story thus far with the Nationals is one filled with money, hair, boos, and sadness. While Juggernats fans are definitely stuck with his monstrous contract and voluminous hair, hopefully the boos and sadness will dissipate this year. For that to happen Werth has to prove last year was an aberration. As a fan, the worst part about Werth's season was that he always seemed to fail at the worst time. The stats back this up too; Werth hit a meager .179 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position. Even so, Nationals' fans can draw positives from Jayson Werth's season. Werth proved to be a superb teammate. Despite having a disheartening season, Werth did little things like breaking up double plays on the base paths or hustling to a ball to keep a runner from advancing. Werth also proved he puts the team above his ego as he hit from six different slots in the order throughout the season. How many guys with a $126 million contract wouldn't complain about that?
Breakout Players:
Matt: Kenley Jansen and Paul Goldschmidt
Kenley Jansen- Yup I have a guy who didn't win the Dodgers closing job as a breakout candidate for the 2012 season. While Javy Guerra may have won the closer role for now, Jansen is the future 9th inning guy for the Dodgers. Last season he posted an incredible and record breaking 16.10 strikeouts per 9 innings rate. So basically if you are going up against Jansen you are going to strike out. Jansen started out as a catcher in the Dodgers organization, but it seems like moving him to the bullpen was a smart move... Jansen relies heavily on his fastball, which sits at about 94 MPH, but for now opposing hitters can not figure it out. As long as they can't hit his fastball and he continues to strike people out at a record rate Jansen will find himself in the closing out games in no time. Sorry Javy.
Paul Goldschmidt- The 6'3 245 pound first basemen is going to hit a ton of home runs and who doesn't love watching somebody sock a few dingers. Goldschmidt though seems like he could follow the mold of Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds--guys who crush the ball when they make contact but strikeout incredible amounts. While he only hit .250 in 48 games last year, he was on fire during the Diamondbacks NLDS playoff series where he hit .438 with 2 homers in four games. Yeah four games is about as small of a sample size as there is, but still the fact that Goldschmidt thrived during the playoffs is a damn good sign.
Henno: Giancarlo Stanton and Dexter Fowler
Giancarlo Stanton- Mike Stanton was many people's breakout pick last year. Just chalk him up as another player that never lived up to the hype. Mike hit a mere 56 career home runs and finished under the 150 RBI mark for his career. This Giancarlo guy though, he's the real deal. He has a massive frame and can hit the ball a mile. Stanton certainly didn't have a disappointing campaign last year, but this will be the year in which he transitions to stardom. Stanton was hit on the wrist in a spring training game against the Mets earlier this week, but it appears as if it won't be a long term issue. Provided he stays in the lineup, expect Stanton to hit cleanup for the Marlins and benefit from Jose Reyes' added production.
Dexter Fowler- Tulo, CarGo, and DextFo...? If Dexter Fowler improves offensively, he could be added to the list of Colorado's best players. Defensively Fowler is already one of the best outfielders in the game. Last year Fowler posted the second best Range Factor per game in the league, trailing only Andrew McCutcheon. And all reports claim that Fowler worked hard on his game and in the weight room this offseason, gaining nearly fifteen pounds of muscle. If Fowler's offseason work correlates on the field, expect him to have a breakout year.
World Series Representative:
Matt: Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies- Pretty obvious front runner in the National League this year. While their infield might be aging, and without Ryan Howard for an extended period of time, the pitching staff and outfield is good enough to pick up the slack. Hunter Pence is one of the more underrated players in the league, and the Flyin' Hawaiin is as good as ever. We know what Halladay, Lee and Hamels can do, so the biggest question in regards to the Phils staff is Vance Worley. Worley had a terrific rookie season, where he posted a 3.01 ERA and went 11-3. If the Phillies want to win the World Series they are going to need another good year from Worley, and fourth starter Joe Blanton. Adding Papelbon to the pen wasn't a bad move either...
Cincinnati Reds- The Reds are a team full of potential, but eventually the guys are going to have to be accountable and live up to that potential if they really want to contend and make it to a World Series. Johnny Cueto has some of the best stuff in the majors and last year it was on full display. The only thing that sidetracked Cueto was a bicep injury and this season he is coming in at full strength. The Reds also made a big move this offseason where they parted ways with the disappointing Edison Volquez and acquired Mat Latos in return. After a shaky start to 2011 Latos picked it up in the last half of the season, but one has to wonder if leaving pitcher friendly Petco Park will hurt his numbers. The offense though should have no problems producing runs in bunches. Votto, Dat Dude BP, Jay Bruce and rookie shortstop Zack Cozart should all have monster seasons.
Miami Marlins (War Horse)- Enough with the Florida Marlins of old, it is now all about Miami. A new name, a new stadium, a new shortstop, a new manager and some slick new uni's should spark some excitement in the 10 Marlins fans out there. From a baseball standpoint adding Jose Reyes was an excellent move and hot head Ozzie Guillen seems like the perfect fit to manage the squad. If Josh Johnson can stay healthy and regain his usually filthy stuff the Marlins will be one of the best teams in the MLB. Their lineup is absolutely stacked from top to bottom with guys like Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison and University of Miami product Gaby Sanchez. While they have guys with power like Stanton this team is going to be killer via small ball and on the base paths. Emilio Bonifacio, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez...I feel sorry for opposing catchers. The Marlins pitching staff though is incredibly shaky. Can Johnson fully recover his pre-injury stuff? Can Mark Buehrle be a legit #2 guy? Will Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez ever post consistently good seasons? Oh yeah, then there is Carlos Zambrano... This is going to be a fun team to watch.
Henno: Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Pillies- With plenty of players coming off the books in the next few years, it appears as if the Phillies have a short time left to reign NL East, let alone the entire league. For the time being the Phillies have other worries like Ryan Howard's ankle and if Ryan Howard is actually a superstar. But Hunter Pence should be able to handle some of the load, even if he looks awkward doing it. The rotation should be superb again this year, after all they have three Cy Young candidates according to me! And although they lost Brad Lidge, it is of the utmost importance that you remember he is Brad Lidge, so it's not that big of a deal. And if you do think that's a big deal, then I'll kindly direct you to the signing of Jonathan Papelbon.
San Francisco Giants- Hopefully for San Francisco fans, the return of Buster Posey will bring the World Series back to the bay. In addition to getting back one of the coveted young stars in baseball, the Giants added Melky Cabrera at centerfield this offseason. Cabrera should more than makeup for the loss of Beltran. Couple those two with a plumped up Kung-Fu Panda and the Giants should finish higher than 29th in runs as a team this year. Even if they don't though, it doesn't take many runs for this team to win games. One of the top rotations in baseball is lead again this year by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. If those two studs aren't enough for you, I hope Ryan Vogelsong and Madison Bumgarner are.
Atlanta Braves (Dark Horse)- It wasn't so long ago that the Atlanta Braves were soiling in one of the worst regular season collapses in baseball history. However, it also wasn't that long ago when the Braves appeared to have the Wild Card locked up. A team that played well for 140 games shouldn't solely be defined by their last twenty two. For the Braves to reach the World Series though, a lot of things have to fall in to place. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson need to stay healthy for the majority of the season in order to create an elite top of the order, Jason Heyward needs to produce at a level that doesn't fall under the category of dreadful, and Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel need to avoid the sophomore slumps that baseball players so often face.
Part II of our MLB preview, which will focus on the American League should be up within the next week, so be sure to check back!
You can follow Matt on Twitter @matthouston91 and Henno @henryemoson and Love Boat Sports @LoveBoatSports. Baseball. Baseball. Baseball.
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