2011-2012 NBA Breakout Players

Who is going to be this year's Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge? Each year guys like the aforementioned players breakout and become stars, the question becomes who will they be. Now that the start of the 2011-2012 NBA season is within a week from tipping off, it is time to look at which players can make the leap from a player with potential, to a player that can change a game. Here are the guys I am going to pay special attention to this season.

Obvious Three:
These three guys are already household names, and are already good players in the association. They have the best chance of making a Derrick Rose-esque leap this season.

John Wall: Washington Wizards Point Guard
Everybody loves to compare John Wall to Derrick Rose. The two had very comparable rookie seasons, Rose was able to take the next step in his second year in the league (and then became the MVP of the league in his third year). Wall put together an insane lockout highlight tape, but NBA defenses will be better prepared to stop him and his blistering speed and breathtaking change of pace, so Wall must improve his jump shot (which he has been working on constantly this offseason) and cut down on his turnovers if he wants to take the next step this year. If Wall can average 20 and 10, the Wizards will have an outside chance at the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, but if he doesn't progress the way most people expect he will, the Wizards will be in the hunt for the #1 pick in the draft yet again.



Blake Griffin: Lobs Angeles Clippers Power Forward
Blake Griffin had an incredible first season in the NBA last year. He was invigorating to watch and provided highlights on highlights on highlights. The fact that Griffin now has Chris Paul leading the Clippers and throwing oops to him is enough to assume he will take a step forward this year, even if his own game doesn't really evolve. When Griffin was at the rim last season he finished 67.7% of the time, but his mid range game was poor, and if he wants to become the best player he can be, he will need to make more than 32.5% of his shots from 10-15 feet. But hey, it's gonna be Lob City.

Steph Curry: Golden State Warriors Point Guard
I love watching John Wall tear up the floor with no regard for human life and I love watching Blake Griffin throw down dunks with no regard for human feelings, but personally Steph Curry might be my favorite of the three to watch. Curry is already one of the best and most effective shooters in the game and his shot is only going to improve. Steph's first two seasons in the league were shockingly similar to one another with not a ton of improvement in any statistical category. For Curry to take his game to the next level he will need to be more of a point guard, and if he can keep his shooting percentage about what it has been, while boosting his assist rate up a bit he could quickly become one of the best point guards in the league. The addition of Mark Jackson as head coach could be huge for the development of Curry's game.

Honorable Mentions: James Harden, Oklahoma City; Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee; Tyreke Evans, Sacramento; Kyle Lowry, Houston

Is Paul George ready to breakout?

Next Level:
These players most likely will not be all-stars this season, but they can still make big strides in their respective careers and can show whether or not they can play at an all-star level.

Jrue Holiday: Philadelphia 76ers Point Guard
Holiday is going to have a breakout year this year. He is going into his third NBA season and is still just 21 years old. Last year he jumped from 8 points a game to 14, and this year I think he can average around 18, while continuing to improve as a distributor. Holiday has a quick first step and an improving long range shot to go with it. That combination can be deadly. You can't overplay Holiday beyond the arc because in the blink of an eye he can blow past you and get to the hoop. He also has the potential to be a terrific defender. His 6'4-180 frame is about as ideal as it gets for a point guard and pair that with his quickness it will be tough for opposing point guards to get by him. If Holiday can (and I expect that he will) improve his 3-point shot, which he hit at 36.5% last year, then the sky is the limit for Holiday.

Tyler Hansbrough: Indiana Pacers Power Forward
I've always compared Tyler Hansbrough to Tim Tebow and Tim Tebow to Tyler Hansbrough. I hated both of them in college, where they dominated, but now that they are viewed as underdogs in the pros I find myself rooting for each of them. Hansbrough shot an impressive 43% from 16-23 feet last year, and if he can continue to bring that number up and improve on his 32.9% FG percentage from 10-15 feet he can become an offensive weapon who can help free up the lane. He doesn't have ideal power forward size but like Tebow he has heart and determination and sometimes that is all you need. With the addition of David West, Hansbrough won't be a starter, but I still think he is a player who can average 12-15 points off the bench to go with 6-9 boards. He won't get assists though...

Paul George: Indiana Pacers Guard/Forward
Paul George is a player who can do a little bit of everything, but right now is without a true identity. Last year as a rookie he showed his potential, but his stats weren't particularly good. George struggled to get minutes at the beginning of the season, which makes sense because he was a rookie on a playoff team, but by the end of the year George was seeing about 22 minutes a game, and this year he should be the teams starting shooting guard. If he does in fact start at shooting guard he could cause major matchup problems for opposing teams. George is 6'9 and incredibly athletic. At the same time though what George struggled at most (threes, ball handling, defense) could all be brought to light if he tries to really play as a 2 guard. He thrives in the fast break, but struggled creating and making his own shots, shooting 37.7% in isolation scenarios. George has the potential to be in the top 10 in steals per game this year as a starter and if he improves his jump shot could take a major leap forward in his career.

DeMarcus Cousins: Sacramento Kings Power Forward/Center
The only thing stopping DeMarcus Cousins from being a star in the NBA is himself. While that might be incredibly cliché and unoriginal as one of my favorite TV characters, Jeff Winger from Community, said, "the biggest truths aren't original. The truth is ketchup. It's Jim Belushi. Its job isn't to blow our minds." As a Wizards fan I am far too familiar with players like these (see: Nick Young, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, Jordan Crawford) and fear that Cousins will continue to get in his own way and not reach his sky high potential. Cousins takes bad shots and complains when things don't go his way but with that being said he is a guy who could average 25 and 10 in the NBA. He has power and touch around the rim, and the ability to dominate the glass. Let's just hope Jimmer can keep him motivated.

Honorable Mentions: Derrick Favors, Utah; DeMar DeRozan, Toronto; DeAndre Jordan, LAC; Evan Turner, Philadelphia; Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia

          Does Austin Daye look like a tall Austin Rivers?

Deep Cuts: 
These players were barely relevant on their teams last year and are trying to break into the rotation and eventually become starters.

Jeff Teague: Atlanta Hawks Point Guard
Teague was a non-factor during the regular season last year, and even more so his rookie season, but with an injury to Kirk Hinrich during the second round of the playoffs Teague was thrust into the starting role. As a starter that series Teague showed signs of game, and this year he will get more of chance to play. The Hawks still have Hinrich and added an aging Tracy McGrady but right now Teague is slated as the teams starting point guard. He doesn't have a good outside game, but can play defense and get to the rim and the free throw line. If he can start to make a higher percentage of his mid range jumpers and embrace the role of a facilitator he can be a solid point guard.

Austin Daye: Detroit Pistons Forward
Daye shot 40.1% from beyond the arc last season. He is going to get a big boost in minutes this year and will fight with Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon to earn a starting spot, although right now Daye might be best suited coming off the bench. He is 6'11 but skinny as a stick and only averaged 7.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. He is a tweener and can't really guard power forwards. His best position is most likely a spot  up small forward. He can block shots, especially shots from small forwards, and wont have any problems getting off his own long range shots because of his height. He has struggled at creating his own buckets, but if he can improve his rebounding and ability to score around the basket Daye could become a very valuable NBA player.

Honorable Mentions: Ed Davis, Toronto; Trevor Booker, Washington; Kevin Seraphin, Washington; Al-Farouq Aminu, New Orleans; Tiago Splitter, San Antonio



When Matt isn't breaking down NBA statistics he whoops up on fellow Love Boat Sport contributors in FIFA 12 and ping-pong. You can follow Love Boat Sports on twitter @LoveBoatSports and you can follow Matt @matthouston91