2012 fantasy baseball preview: Mid-late round pitchers

My fantasy baseball strategy has previously been all about pitchers. I would not hesitate to take five or six pitchers in the first 10 rounds with Roy Halladay in the first and just draft your Kelly Johnson's of the world in the later rounds to fill up my hitters. This year though I am coming to the realization that the maximum amount of pitchers one should take in the first 10 rounds is four, and you could really take as few as two pitchers and still have a solid staff by the end of the draft. Hitters are simply too weak this season, and there is not enough depth to pass on guys like Josh Hamilton, Jay Bruce and Mark Teixeira in rounds 3-6. Sure Dan Haren, CC Sabathia and Jon Lester are nice guys to have on any fantasy team, but I am here to show you that you can get adequate replacements in the mid to late rounds while stacking your hitters early. Here are five guys that are going in rounds 15 and beyond that are worth a risk and could produce a big reward.



1. Neftali Feliz -- Texas Rangers
Average Draft Position: 153.7     ESPN Projected 2012 Stats: 11-7 148 K 3.73 ERA 1.22 WHIP

Neftali Feliz is a pitcher that really intrigues me but at the same time is one of the biggest question marks going into the 2012 season. Feliz is making the move from closer to starter for real this year--after considering the move last season--and with this move comes a series of questions that will need to be answered. Feliz used his fastball 79.8% of the time last season, which was fine for a closer who will only face hitters one time but might pose a problem when you are facing guys 2, 3 and even 4 times in one game. So Neftali will need to bring in his slider more as well as a changeup that was rarely seen in 2011. Another area of concern would be the fact that his K/9 rate dropped to 7.80 last season from 9.22 in 2010. Regardless of these concerns I think Feliz is certainly worth a look in round 15 or 16 and his ceiling as a starter is a heck of a lot more rewarding than his floor if he busts. If he really struggles as a starter there is a good chance the Rangers cut their losses and move him back to the pen, where he will still maintain value.

2. Justin Masterson -- Cleveland Indians
Average Draft Position: 171.2      ESPN Projected 2012 Stats: 14-9 161 K 3.41 ERA 1.31 WHIP

Justin Masterson has typically been going in the 17th round of ESPN standard 10 team rotisserie style scoring leagues. So you see his projected 2012 stats from ESPN now look at Ricky Romero's-- 15-9 193 K 3.36 ERA 1.26 WHIP. Aside from strikeouts there really isn't a TON of difference between the pitchers. Romero is currently going at the end of the 8th round or the beginning of the 9th. This means that you are passing on guys like Kevin Youkilis, Matt Weiters, Adam Jones and Rickie Weeks to get at best a marginally better pitcher. This leaves you with guys like Jason Kipinis, Mark "I will single handily kill your batting average" Reynolds and Stephen Drew in the later rounds. Give me the Youkilis-Masterson combo everyday of the week. Also take into account that Masterson is a great ground ball pitcher and his FIP was a very good 3.28, which is better than guys like David Price and James Shields last season. He will rely heavily on his defense, but I would be comfortable relying on Masterson as a 15, 16 or 17th round pick.

3. Brandon McCarthy -- Oakland Athletics 
Average Draft Position: 188.0       ESPN Projected 2012 Stats: 12-9 135 K 3.30 ERA 1.19 WHIP

McCarthy was recently featured in ESPN Magazine as the new poster boy for "moneyball." The story talks about how McCarthy was basically out of baseball until he started learning about advanced statistics and sabermetrics invented by Bill James and made famous by Oakland A's manager Billy Beane. McCarthy reinvented his game and started focusing on forcing hitters into ground ball after ground ball. Last season McCarthy's ground ball percentage was a career high 46.7% and his ERA a career low 3.32. Prior to the 2011 campaign McCarthy never had a ground ball percentage higher than 39%. He also finished fifth in the entire league in FIP (click the link if you don't understand) trailing only Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee and Madison Bumgarner--not too shabby. One of the bigger areas of concern for McCarthy is his injury riddled past. His 25 starts last season were also a career high and he still missed six weeks due to injury. Even if you don't get a ton of wins or strikeouts from him, you are going to get a good ERA and a good WHIP and if you can do that in the 18th round you are doing something right. He also has a babe of a wife.

4. Clay Buchholz -- Boston Red Sox
Average Draft Position: 186.6      ESPN Projected 2012 Stats: 12-7 127 K 3.86 ERA 1.32 WHIP

Buchholz has only surpassed the 100 innings pitched mark one time in his career. That year was 2010 and it was when he finished the year 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA 1.20 WHIP. 2010 was a bit lucky if you look at some of the more advanced stats like FIP and xFIP, which were both higher than what you would expect with a 2.33 ERA. Then his 2011 was cut way short by a back injury--he only made 14 starts. Now Buchholz is supposedly healthy and should start the year as the Sawks #3 starter. He won't strike a ton of guys out--having just a 6.53 K/9 last season--but his stuff is good enough to keep guys guessing, especially if his changeup is working. Also the Red Sox will provide all the run support Clay will need to amass double digit wins. Some other pitchers who are going in rounds 17, 18 and 19 are: Ted Lilly, Wandy Rodriguez and Colby Lewis. I will take Buchholz and his potential reward over those three guys without hesitation. If I could give Clay one piece of advice it would be to go back to #61, that should fix all of his issues.

5. Vance Worley -- Philadelphia Phillies 
Average Draft Position: 219.4        ESPN Projected 2012 Stats: 10-8 140 K 3.92 ERA 1.30WHIP

Worley is a guy who is going undrafted in more than 50% of standard ESPN leagues. This makes no sense to me. Sure there is probably going to be somewhat of a drop off from the 3.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP he posted last year as a rookie, but even so I would happily spend a 20, 21 or 22nd round pick on a guy like Worley. His focus this offseason has been adding a new consistent pitch to his repertoire and if he can start throwing a consistent effective curveball then there might not be any substantial of drop off from his 2011 season. He strikes a lot of guys out with a K/9 rate of 8.13 in 2011 and his 39.3% ground ball rate seems incredibly low for a guy who utilizes a sinker. Also who better to keep a young pitcher in form and on the right trajectory than Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels? Worley has already started using Hamels' cutter grip. So if you really would rather draft guys like Chase Headley, Bud Norris and Chad Billingsley over Worley then be my guest, I will just start engraving my fantasy trophy now.

Some other mid-late round pitchers I like: Jair Jurrjens (don't judge me), Daniel Bard (see Neftali Feliz), Jhoulys Chacin and Brandon Morrow

So hold off on taking four or five pitchers in the first ten rounds, draft guys like Michael Bourn, Eric Hosmer and Elvis Andrus instead and grab some of these guys in rounds 15-22. You can thank me after you win your championship.

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