2012 MLB Preview: American League

So technically the MLB season has officially begun. The Seattle Mariners and the Oakland Athletics are tied for the best record in baseball. That is the last time you will see that sentence written all year--unless Yoenis Cespedes hits 100 home runs, which is entirely possible. Henno and Matt covered the National League earlier, and you can find that post here, and now they turn their focus on to the American League. So without further adieu...let's get ready for (American League) baseball!!!!!



MVP:

Henno: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury

Can anything stop him?
Courtesy of Reuters

Miguel Cabrera- At this point, the only thing that can stop Miguel Cabrera is a grounder to the face.  Given Cabrera's unfortunate mix of position and fielding ability, a few more shiners wouldn't come as a surprise.  I guess the argument could also be made that donuts and alcohol could stop Cabrera, but I'll leave that argument for someone else.  Cabrera has just entered his prime posting career highs in OPS+ (OPS adjusted to the hitter's ballpark) for two consecutive years at 178 and 181 respectively, roughly 30 points above his career average.  Conventional wisdom says that he will benefit from hitting in front of Prince Fielder, getting better pitches to hit.  Although Cabrera had a higher BAbip than his career average, it wasn't so egregious as to expect a serious decline in his average this year.

Adrian Gonzalez- Adrian Gonzalez had a career year by anyone's standards last year racking in a plethora of individual awards.  He made the All-Star game, won the Silver Slugger award, and earned himself his third Gold Glove award at first base.  Despite his statistically phenomenal year, Gonzalez finished seventh in MVP voting.  This is largely due to the train of thought that if you are on a better team, you are less valuable to that team and thus less worth of being the MVP.  I wish the award were changed to Most Outstanding Player so Gonzalez and others would not be punished for being on a good team.  Regardless, Adrian Gonzalez is finally healthy having recovered from a lingering shoulder injury.  He has been quoted saying that he previously was only swinging to make contact and is finally hitting through the ball.  If last year's numbers came courtesy of a bum shoulder, I would certainly trade my two healthy shoulders for a pair of his injured ones.

Jacoby Ellsbury (Dark Horse)- Prior to last year, Jacoby Ellsbury had always been your classic leadoff hitter.  He was good for a .300 average, a bunch of stolen bases, around 50 RBI's, and single-digit HR's.  Last year things changed.  Ellsbury had a career year in just about every important statistic including batting average (.321), OPS (.928), HR's (32), and RBI's (105).  Like Gonzalez, Ellsbury was held back in MVP voting because of his superior teammates.  Perhaps this year with the Tigers' addition of Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander's value will be subtracted, letting Ellsbury take his spot on top of the voting.  Whether he wins it or not, don't expect his numbers to drop off as he is entering the prime of his career now.  The only reason Ellsbury is a dark horse is because of the natural inclination to vote true power hitters as the MVP.

Matt: Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista

Adrian Gonzalez- After escaping Petco Park (28th in runs scored) and going to far more hitter friendly Fenway (3rd in runs scored) it was presumed that Gonzalez would have one of his best statistical seasons in 2011. He did. A-Gon hit .338 (career average .293) had an OBP of .410 (career average .375) and a SLG of .548 (career average .514). His homer run total was surprisingly lower than his previous season in San Diego (27 last year-31 in 2010) but his 117 RBIs were the second most in his career. Gonzalez finished 7th in MVP voting last year, and his 6.6 WAR (wins above replacement) was tied for 8th in the AL. Now Gonzalez has a year of experience in the AL and a year of experience with the Red Sox. He is projected to hit behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia and in front of Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz so he will see plenty of good pitches with guys on base. Consider Adrian Gonzalez my front-runner to win the 2012 AL MVP award.

Miguel Cabrera- Henno does an excellent job breaking down why Miguel Cabrera is a top choice to win the AL MVP above. So you can read that and watch this.

Dark Horse?

Jose Bautista (Dark Horse)- Ok saying Bautista is a "dark horse" to win the MVP might be a bit of a stretch, seeing how he finished 3rd in voting last season. However, when you are comparing Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays to Adrian Gonzalez of the Boston Red Sox and Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers it does make for Bautista to be somewhat of an under the radar candidate. The 31-year-olds career path is nothing short of remarkable and last year he was able to prove that 2010 was no fluke. Bautista is a career .254 hitter but he hit .302 last season while adding 43 homers and 103 RBIs. Bautista doesn't have the protection that Gonzalez (Kevin Youkilis) and Cabrera (Prince Fielder) have, with Adam Lind hitting behind him in the batting order, but many people think that Brett Lawrie could be a middle of the order type bat starting this year and that would certainly help Bautista. With an additional Wild Card spot this year in the MLB I think that the Blue Jays might be one of the main benefactors of the rule change. If the Jays make the playoffs and Bautista has another 40+ home run season it is entirely plausible that he could be the 2012 AL MVP winner. Fresh.

Cy Young:

Henno: Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez

Justin Verlander- I'm not sure I really need to cover how good Justin Verlander is, but I will anyway.  Last year Justin Verlander became the 24th pitcher to win the MVP award and the first since Dennis Eckerlsey did in 1992.  Compared to Verlander's career statistics, last year was pretty amazing.  He set career highs in innings pitched (251), wins (24), complete games (4), and shutouts (2) while posting lows in ERA (2.40), WHIP (0.920), and walks (57).  The only blemish on his year was his postseason performance, which has become regular in Verlander's eight career postseason stars.  For his career and last year his ERA has been over 5.00 during the playoffs.  But, this is more interesting information rather than evidence that Verlander won't contend for the Cy Young this year.

Felix Hernandez (Dark Horse)- Anyone whose name doesn't begin with Justin and end with Verlander is a dark horse at this point.  The King was holding court, albeit in Japan, against the A's to kick off the MLB season.  He gave up one run on five hits through eight innings of work.  Maybe it's a little unfair that I am picking Hernandez after he has already pitched a stellar game in the regular season, but I was planning on picking him anyway, so whatever.  Hernandez has already won the Cy Young award while only winning 13 games, so even if he doesn't pick up solid run support--which he won't--he still has a good chance at winning the award.  Felix is also a lock to start 30 games and pitch 190 innings, which he has done in every full year of his career.  I would be more surprised if Hernandez finishes out of the top three in Cy Young voting than if he does.  With Verlander in the same league though, Felix better Watch the Throne.

Matt: CC Sabathia, Dan Haren and Matt Moore

Editors Note: After Henno and I had incredibly similar lists for AL MVP I decided to shake things up for the Cy Young candidates. I am not crazy, and I do think that Justin Verlander could easily repeat as the Cy Young winner.

CC Sabathia- Sabathia posted his best ERA as a member of Yankees in 2011--3.00--and went 19-8. He also had a higher ground ball %, a higher WAR, a lower FIP and a lower xFIP than Justin Verlander. In fact, his WAR, FIP and xFIP were all the best in the American League. Pitching for the Yankees is an obvious plus because of the run support, but at the same time it means you are pitching in the mighty AL East. Sabathia struggled mightily against the Red Sox last year, posting a 6.39 ERA in six starts. If he wants to win the Cy Young he is going to need to figure out how to get past the Red Sox lineup, and most likely post a 20 win season.

Dan Haren- In his first full season as an Angel, Haren went 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The 16 wins tied his career high for a season, and the 1.02 WHIP was his 2nd best. With the addition of Albert Pujols the Angels should win more than 86 games this season, and it seems likely that Haren would benefit in the form of an extra win or two. His 3.29 xFIP was good for 5th best in the AL and his 2.98 FIP was the 3rd best in the AL. While Justin Verlander had a LOB% (left on base percentage) of 80.3% and Sabathia a 77%, Haren had a far more typical 71.5%. So if Haren gets a little luckier this season (like Verlander and Sabathia were in 2011) 20 wins and a Cy Young wouldn't be so far-fetched.

The future.
Courtesy of Larry W. Smith

Matt Moore (Dark Horse)- While Jose Bautista might not have been much of a dark horse MVP candidate, a pitcher who is 22 and only has 19.1 innings of major league experience (10 of those in the 2011 playoffs) definitely fits the bill.  He made three regular season appearances last September during the regular season, and one start. His start was against the Yankees and he pitched 5 innings, gave up no runs 4 hits 1 walk and 11 strikeouts. Not too shabby. Then he made two appearances in the playoffs and one start. The start was against the Rangers and he pitched 7 innings, gave up no runs 2 hits 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. Pretty good. In Triple-A last year Moore made 9 starts, had a 13.50 K/9, a 1.37 ERA and a .97 WHIP. The Rays aren't holstering Moore with an innings limit this season so that won't be an issue. While it seems impossible that there will be no adjustment period, once hitters face him a few times, his stuff is good enough that it might be a short-lived adjustment period. Also who better to help a young pitcher through their first MLB season than David Price and Jeremy Hellickson? Who cares that he is in the AL East (yes, I'm a hypocrite)? I am firmly situated on the Matt Moore bandwagon.

Players I'm Rooting For:

Henno: Ubaldo Jimenez, Manny Ramirez

Ubaldo Jimenez- Ubaldo Jimenez has had a pretty interesting journey in his short major league career.  In 2007, the year the Rockies made the playoffs, Jimenez was a back of the rotation flamethrower who could become a top of the line guy if he just harnessed in his control.  From 2007 on, his statistics continued to improve until 2010 when he posted 19 wins and 214 strikeouts.  In 2011 he lost a few miles per hour off of his fastball and was subsequently traded to the Indians.  Last year was probably the worst year of his career: he finished the year with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.402 WHIP.  In spring training his fastball has topped out in the mid nineties, around 95 MPH.  Those are not the triple digits Jimenez put up for his first years with the Rockies, but it could still be enough for Jimenez to bounce back and be a productive pitcher.

Manny Ramirez- Which people in our world don't root for Manny?  I'm guessing it is the 70+ baseball purists who think anyone that used steroids should be banned for life.  Luckily for everyone else, Manny's suspension is only 50 48 more games.  While we won't truly see how successful the Manny experiment is until he starts playing in games that count, it's been reported out of A's camp that Ramirez has been helping the development and growth of other fan favorite, Yoenis Cespedes.  Years ago, GQ ran a profile on Manny that should be required reading for any sports fan.  Enjoy it here.

Matt: Yoenis Cespedes, Brandon McCarthy

Certified stud.
Courtesy of Getty Images

Yoenis Cespedes- I love Yoenis Cespedes. After watching his baller 20-minute showcase reel--which if you haven't seen you must--I was hooked on Cespedes. After playing in the Cuban baseball league since 2003 Cespedes finally decided to test out his talent at the major league level. The A's scooped him up in a very anti-moneyball move, signing him to a 4-year $36 million deal this February. He is a five-tool player center fielder who can straight up mash. In the 2009 World Baseball Classic Cespedes was 11 for 24 (.458) with a double, three triples, two dingers, and five RBIs in six games. Oh yeah, I guess the Major League Baseball season has started...In his first game he went 1/3 with a double and in his second he went 1/3 with a 2 run bomb. <3 Yoenis.

Brandon McCarthy- I guess you can call me an honorary A's fan this year. I have written about McCarthy previously, so I will spare you all from a long paragraph as to why I am rooting for him, but this is the main reason. Also this.

Breakout Players:

Henno: Dustin Ackley and Matt Moore

Dustin Ackley- I swear I picked Dustin Ackley before he hit the first home run of the year in Japan.  Either way, many people are picking the former Tarheel to have a huge year for the Mariners.  In just over half a season last year, Ackley hit at a .273 clip with an OPS of .766.  Not monster numbers by any means, but pretty damn good for a rookie second-baseman.  Unlike Danny Espinosa, don't expect a significant drop off in production after his first 90 games in The Show.  Look for Ackley to only improve on his numbers, especially in the power department.

Matt Moore-  Matt Moore is just the latest top pitching prospect delivered by the Rays.  This stat has been used quite a bit, but that's just because it is so incredible: The last time a pitcher over the age of 30 started a game for the Rays was on May 24th of the year.... 2007!  **Jaw drops**  This incredible streak should continue for a while longer with the Rays pitching staff constantly adding young talent.  Last year the Rays were so confident with Moore that they gave him a start in the playoffs and brought him in as relief later in the series verse the Rangers.  Moore did not disappoint striking out eight batters in ten innings of work, while only giving up one run.  There is lots more where that came from and expect Moore to contend for ROY this year.

Matt: Colby Rasmus, Lorenzo Cain

Colby Rasmus- If Colby Rasmus doesn't breakout this year then he probably never will. He was a first round pick back in 2005 and a top rated prospect all throughout his years in the minor leagues. He was supposed to hit for power and steal bases. So far in his major league career Rasmus hasn't done a whole lot of anything. At the conclusion of last season's trade deadline he was shipped out of St. Louis and brought into Toronto. Many people thought that the trade/change of scenery would finally bring out some of Rasmus' potential. It did not. He hit just .173 in 35 games with the Blue Jays with just 3 home runs and 0 steals. The Jays are still going to make the 25-year-old their starting center fielder in 2012, and he is projected to hit 6th in the order. The opportunity is there for Colby, now it is finally time to seize it.

Lorenzo Cain- Cain was one of the key pieces in the Zack Greinke trade the Royals and Brewers made in December of 2010. The 25-year-old center fielder spent almost the entirety of the 2011 season in Triple-A and has just 49 games of major league experience--43 with the Brewers in 2010 and 6 with the Royals in 2011--but Cain will be the Royals everyday center fielder in 2012 now that Melky Cabrera is in San Francisco. It seems likely that Cain will be the #2 hitter for the Royals, which could be a very favorable spot for the rookie. He hit .312 in 128 Triple-A games in 2011 and had 16 home runs and 16 steals. Cain has also been on an absolute tear during Spring Training, where he is hitting .426 with 5 home runs, 9 doubles and 2 steals in 21 games. The Royals are stacked with young talent and with the addition of Lorenzo Cain to their everyday lineup they could be a sneaky good team this season. The future is getting brighter and brighter in Kansas City.


World Series Representatives:

Henno: Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Texas Rangers

Detroit Tigers- Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander alone would make the Detroit Tigers contenders, but the addition of Prince Fielder puts them as one of the favorites in the AL.  The potential woes of the Tigers infield have already been documented here on Loveboat, but I don't see these as hindering them from making a playoff run.  Their lineup is stacked; in addition to Fielder and Cabrera they have Alex Avila, Johnny Peralta, and Victor Martinez, who could all put over twenty home runs this year.  Doug Fister serves as a viable #2 option in the rotation and Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello work well for middle and back end pitchers.  Expect the Tigers to easily win the AL Central and challenge anyone they face in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Rays- The Rays have the deepest, youngest pitching staff in baseball.  That alone will keep them in the playoff race for years to come.  In addition to the wonderful rotation, a healthy, productive Evan Longoria could do miracles for the Rays lineup.  In September Longoria broke out of his slump with an OPS of 1.043 and seven home runs.  Longoria also added ten home runs in the month of August.  This shows his power finally returned towards the end of the year whereas in the first four months of the season he only hit fourteen total.  Desmond Jennings season told the contrarian story hitting .333 in July and August before tailing off for a meager .160 in September.  If Jennings can adjust to opposing pitchers' adjustments, the Rays lineup will receive a serious boost.

The Hurling Darvish
Courtesy of Paul Moseley

Texas Rangers (Dark Horse)- A lot of how the Rangers do this year will depend on their additions to their starting rotation.  Yu Darvish has looked great in spring training, but we still have to see how MLB hitters will adjust to him and if he can handle the additional workload coming from Japan.  The other question mark is Neftali Feliz who is trying to make the transition from closing games every night to starting them every fifth day.  This is obviously a difficult transition to make, but if Feliz can produce as a starter the Rangers have a shot to challenge the Angels for the AL West title.  If not, they can battle the leftovers of the AL East for the two remaining wild card spots.  The Rangers' lineup should remain potent so long as Josh Hamilton continues to generate.

Matt: Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox- There is a new manager, Bobby Valentine, a new GM, Ben Cherington and a new closer, Andrew Bailey, but the Red Sox still likely have the best lineup in the MLB, especially if guys like Kevin Youkilis and Carl Crawford bounce back from down years in 2011. The thing that might stop the Sox for getting the World Series is their pitching staff. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are two aces but outside of that it is mostly question marks. Can Clay Buchholz get back to his 2010 form? Is Daniel Bard going to adjust well to becoming a starting pitcher? Until just a few days ago it was unclear who would even be the 4th and 5th starters, now it seems as if it will be Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard. So yes there are a ton of questions about the starting rotation, but any time you have a lineup that features Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford you have a good chance of winning. If the Red Sox can just get into the postseason then they will have a high probability of reaching the World Series, because they can just put out Lester, Becket and Buchholz to start games.

Los Angeles Angels- With the additions of Albert "don't call me El Hombre" Pujols and CJ Wilson the Angels seem to be in fantastic position to make a run at the World Series this season. While there might be some concerns with their lineup the Angels pitching staff is now terrific. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and CJ Wilson make up one of the best 3-man rotations in the MLB. Kendrys Morales is back from injury and Mike Trout is just waiting for the chance to get some playing time. Mike Scioscia is also one of the best and most successful managers in the league. The AL West race between the Rangers and Angels will certainly be one to keep an eye on.

Tampa Bay Rays (Dark Horse)- David Price. Jeremy Hellickson. James Shields. Matt Moore. Jeff Niemann. You will not find a deeper 5-man rotation than that one--outside of Philadelphia, and even that is close. The key for the Rays though is going to be Evan Longoria. If Longoria can bounce back from a somewhat shaky 2011--where he hit just .244--the Rays are going to be serious contenders in a stacked American League.


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