Lone stars in Texas: Tony Parker and Dirk Nowitzki

Courtesy of Jesse D. Garrabrant

           If we’re talking NBA rivalries, I’m all in with San Antonio Spurs – Dallas Mavericks.  All right, maybe Lakers – Celtics, but after that I’m heading to Texas for my basketball.  Although both teams somewhat lack historical significance, throughout the last decade the Spurs and Mavericks have been arguably the two most consistent teams in the league.  They have faced off five times in the playoffs since 1999 and they have won a total five championships in that time.  Contempt visible between the two teams; there have been strings of ejections and suspensions during the highly suspenseful matchups.

            This year, although the Mavericks have disappointed, the rivalry has played up to expectations.  In late January, the Mavericks pulled out a thrilling overtime victory after blowing a 14-point lead to the Spurs bench.  Despite winning this ever important divisional game, the Mavs, and Dirk Nowitzki, have not lived up to the expected standard after winning the championship last year.  Some people believe the Mavericks are waiting to go after Dwight Howard this offseason, but for the time being, the Mavericks look slow, old and injured.

            Falling right into that category is now 11-time all-star Dirk Nowitzki.  Nowitzki has been hampered by a sore right knee that has kept him out of four contests.  In addition to that, or because of that as some would argue, he is having his worst season in over ten years: his PPG, RPG, FG%, and 3P% are all the lowest they have been since his second season in the NBA.  Last year, Nowitzki’s dip in production would have been of minor significance with Tyson Chandler and Jason Kidd picking up much of the slack.  However, Chandler is wasting away in New York while Kidd is deteriorating before our eyes.  Kidd was once known for amassing triple-doubles; this year he has gotten to double-digits in points once, assists twice, and rebounds once.  Rodrigue Beaubois has been a pleasure to watch, but the Mavericks sorely miss JJ Barea.

Courtesy of Lucy Nicholson

            Not all is bad for the Mavericks though; they’re currently fifth in the West and have a Kardashian on their side!  To make a real run though, Dirk Nowitzki will need to improve his level of play or the Mavericks will have to make an acquisition.  While it looked like the Spurs were going to shake things up this offseason, either by amnestying Richard Jefferson or trading Tony Parker, they stayed put and are once again looking like a semi-contender.  Parker is doing much of the work on his own, as he is having one of the best seasons of his career.

            With Ginobili out with an injury and Tim Duncan playing fewer and fewer minutes, more of the scoring load falls squarely on Parker’s shoulders.  Currently he is getting the majority of his points from finishing at the basket (FG%: 63) and mid-range jumpers (FG%: 40).  In addition to his up-tick in scoring, Parker is averaging the most assists in his career at 7.7 per game.  He is making better decisions on when to distribute the ball and when to take a shot himself.  All this is not to say Parker does not have any help; the Spurs have one of the best benches in the league.  But similar to Nowitzki in Dallas, Parker has been the only All-Star caliber player on his team.

            Some might argue the decline in the play of those around them is directly correlated to their all-star selection.  While this might be true for Nowitzki, it is only plausible in our perception of him.  With less around him, we assume he is more essential to the Mavericks success, despite the fact that his USG% is down from his career average.  For Parker though, Ginobili’s absence and Duncan’s decline can pinpoint Parker’s spike in numbers.  Parker’s USG% is up from his career average of 25.5% to 28.4% and he is averaging three more shots a game than he usually does.  With Ginobili coming back, expect Parker’s stats to slowly decline as the Spurs make a run in the West.

            While Ginobili is coming back for the Spurs, the Mavericks need someone to spark the team.  Jason Kidd will eventually return to the lineup, but is he really the answer?  If the Mavericks want to contend this year, (maybe they don’t) they need to make a move before the deadline.  If not, their Texas counterpart will get an all-star back in Ginobili while Nowitzki wastes away in the Lone Star State.